ETH Zurich Study Finds Europe Could Slash Rare Earth Demand-But Its 2050 Model Has Serious Blind Spots

Highlights

• ETH Zurich study shows alternative EV motors and wind turbines could sharply reduce European demand for dysprosium and terbium by 2050
• REEx identifies critical flaws: the model compares demand to theoretical global allocations, not actual supply available to European buyers
• Extreme substitution scenarios cannot all occur simultaneously, and the study ignores who funds costly industrial redesign and qualification
• For investors in Lynas and MP Materials, technological substitution is a long-term risk, not an imminent demand collapse
• The preprint is not yet peer-reviewed, and technical feasibility does not equal commercial or market reality