Europe’s Rare Earth Mirage: Strategy, or Stagecraft?

Highlights

• Despite claims of strategic autonomy, China controls 92% of rare earth processing and 98% of Europe’s rare earth magnets.
• EU leaders are mistaking political theater and symbolic gestures for substantive industrial policy.
• Europe must rebuild its critical mineral supply chain or risk surrendering economic leverage to China.

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It was meant to be a moment of triumph. Ursula von der Leyen held aloft a permanent magnet—manufactured in Estonia from Australian ore by a Canadian firm—and proclaimed it a symbol of European sovereignty. But that symbol, like much of the EU’s rare earth strategy, came with an inconvenient truth: the magnet was processed in China.

Despite the slogans, China still controls 92% of rare earth processing and supplies 98% of Europe’s rare earth magnets. Brussels imports nearly all of its feedstock. The EU’s green transition from wind turbines to electric vehicles runs through Chinese factories. What von der Leyen called “strategic autonomy” is, in truth, dependency rebranded.

Analyst Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa (opens in a new tab) doesn’t pull punches in his scathing essay. His central thesis is clear: Europe is mistaking theater for policy, mistaking handshakes and high-level summits for industrial substance. And while Brussels clings to symbols, China deepens its leverage—subtly, bureaucratically, and effectively. One export license delay from Beijing can stall entire European manufacturing lines.

The crux? Europe’s rare earth dreams are still processed in China—and pretending otherwise won’t change the metallurgy.

The article delivers a blistering takedown of EU hypocrisy and disunity. But it also overreaches. It suggests that only direct negotiation with China can buy time, ignoring parallel U.S. moves that, while slow, start to include some elements of industrial policy. It misses European investments already underway in Norway, France, and Estonia. And it implies the U.S. is dragging Europe into a confrontation when China’s own coercive trade behavior is arguably the trigger.

Still, the essay’s warning lands: speeches and posturing politicians and bureaucrats won’t reverse decades of offshoring. Either Europe rebuilds its critical mineral and magnet supply chain—or surrenders its leverage to others.

Rare Earth Exchanges™ Bias Meter

Category	Score (0–10)
Accuracy of Factual Claims	8
Depth of Supply Chain Analysis	9
Geopolitical Context & Fairness	6
Overgeneralization/Speculation	4
Emotive or Loaded Language	3
Recognition of Western Progress	4
Call to Action or Constructive Solutions	7

Total Score: 41/70 – Insightful and urgent, but occasionally theatrical—much like the critique it delivers.