Greenland Mines Frames Sarfartoq at 34% of Ex-China NdPr?But Conversion Determines the Real Supply

Highlights

• Sarfartoq ST1 holds 6.9 Mt Indicated at 1.60% TREO with 63.6% design recovery, but carries no Mineral Reserves and remains at Initial Assessment stage.
• The 34% ex-China NdPr figure is a modeled snapshot; if Western separation capacity expands as policy intends, the same output would represent a shrinking market share.
• Neo Performance Materials holds non-binding offtake rights for up to 60% of future ore or concentrate, linking Sarfartoq potentially to Estonia's Silmet separation plant.
• The headline US$2.05 billion NPV and 118.6% IRR are high-case sensitivity figures combining optimistic price, cost, and capital assumptions simultaneously.
• Investors should track drilling, metallurgy, permitting, financing, and binding downstream deals—not percentage-of-market claims—to assess real supply probability.