Hinrich Foundation Maps Mine-to-Magnet Gap as Great Powers Era 2.0 Reshapes Rare Earths

Highlights

• Paterson estimates ex-China magnet-related mining could reach 55,000 tonnes by 2035, but separation and refining capacity may only reach 33,000 tonnes—a dangerous structural gap.
• Heavy-rare-earth metallization, alloying, and qualified magnet production remain the tightest bottlenecks, with broad Western independence potentially delayed until 2040.
• China's advantage lies not in mineral ownership but in an integrated ecosystem converting raw materials into strategically critical manufactured products.
• REEx rankings of Lynas, MP Materials, Energy Fuels, and Neo Performance Materials align with Paterson's independent finding of excess mine supply and insufficient midstream capacity.
• The report cites REEx estimates that China exports roughly 58,000 tonnes of magnets directly, with another 40,000 tonnes embedded in finished goods.