India’s Net-Zero Mineral Reckoning: NITI Aayog Sketches a Future of Surging Demand-and Serious Exposure

Highlights

• India's net-zero pathway requires 169 million tonnes of Critical Energy Transition Minerals by 2070—51% more than current policy scenarios.
• EV batteries account for 55% of this demand.
• Copper demand alone is expected to reach 66 million tonnes.
• Two-thirds of cumulative mineral demand will materialize after 2050, creating a back-loaded challenge.
• There is a 100% import dependence for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and most rare earths due to concentrated global markets.
• NITI Aayog calls for active industrial policy to secure the material substrate of decarbonization, which includes:
  • Exploration reform
  • Domestic refining clusters
  • Recycling infrastructure
  • Overseas acquisition capacity

---

India’s planners have done the arithmetic. In Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero – Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply (Vol. 10), (opens in a new tab) NITI Aayog’s Green Transition division (opens in a new tab) sets out the materials bill for India’s march to net-zero emissions by 2070.  It’s a serious undertaking, with accumulating risk.

The headline is stark: under a Net Zero Scenario (NZS), cumulative demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) reaches roughly 169 million tonnes by 2070—around 51% higher than under a Current Policy Scenario (CPS). In other words, India’s clean-energy future will be determined as much by mines and refineries as by solar panels and wind turbines.

A materials-first model of the energy transition

The study links projected deployment of solar PV, wind, battery storage, electric vehicles and hydrogen electrolysers to “embedded” mineral intensities—tonnes per gigawatt or gigawatt-hour

Two pathways are modelled:

• CPS: continuation of policies in place up to 2023
• NZS: accelerated deployment aligned with net zero by 2070

To guard against underestimation, upper-bound capacity projections are used. Cumulative mineral demand is calculated by combining annual installations, technology market shares, and fixed mineral intensities

The authors then stress-test the results against domestic reserves, import dependence, processing capacity, recycling potential, and geopolitical risk

The arithmetic of scale

By mid-century, copper demand exceeded 20 million tonnes, while graphite surpassed 14 million tonnes

By 2070, under NZS, cumulative totals reach approximately:

• Copper: ~66 Mt
• Graphite: ~46 Mt
• Silicon: ~19 Mt
• Phosphorous: ~16–17 Mt
• Nickel: ~11 Mt
• Lithium: ~5–6 Mt

More striking is the timing. Over two-thirds of cumulative demand materializes after 2050. India’s mineral challenge is therefore not just large—it is back-loaded. This creates a paradox. There is time to prepare. But delay risks compounding vulnerability.

Batteries dominate; rare earths linger

The technological breakdown is revealing:

• EV batteries account for ~55% of total CETM demand
• Solar contributes ~30%
• Wind ~6%
• Battery storage ~5%
• Electrolysers <1%

Copper and graphite underpin nearly everything. Lithium, nickel, and cobalt cluster around batteries. Wind turbines and EV motors lock in dependence on neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—rare earths indispensable for permanent magnets.

Electrolysers, though small in volume, depend on geopolitically sensitive metals such as platinum and iridium.

Exposure without leverage

By 2050, India’s demand will represent roughly 9% of global demand across shared CETMs

That is meaningful in absolute tonnage—but insufficient for price-setting power.

The supply picture is uncomfortable. The report shows 100% import dependence for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and most rare earth elements, with significant reliance even where resources exist

Silicon imports remain dominant at the polysilicon stage.

Globally, export restrictions have increased sharply over the past decade.

China’s dominance in rare-earth processing, Indonesia’s nickel policies, and the consolidation of supply contracts among large OEMs underscore the fragility of open access. India, in short, will be a large buyer in a concentrated market.

Recycling: necessary, insufficient

The circular-economy chapter is sober. Recycling can meaningfully offset demand for cobalt and nickel as battery chemistries evolve. Yet for silicon and rare earths, the contribution remains limited. So, recycling can supplement the primary supply; it cannot substitute for it.

Policy: industrial strategy by another name

The prescriptions are expensive:

• Rebalance exploration licensing, potentially reintroducing conditional First-Come, First-Served access for early-stage exploration
• Improve geological reporting standards
• Align public-sector undertakings such as IREL and NMDC with a unified critical-minerals mandate
• Strengthen overseas acquisition capacity via KABIL
• Develop refining and recycling clusters
• Create a National Critical Raw Materials analytical unit

The report is careful not to overreach. But its logic is unmistakable: the energy transition requires active industrial policy.

Caveats—and a larger question

The authors openly acknowledge modelling limits: static mineral intensities, partial sectoral coverage, heuristic market-share assumptions. Technology evolution could reduce intensity. Demand pathways may shift.

Yet even under conservative assumptions, the structural story holds.

India’s decarbonization is not merely an engineering challenge. It is a materials gamble. Copper and graphite look foundational. Rare earths remain chokepoints. Recycling helps but does not scale to the task.

The report reframes critical minerals not as a footnote to climate policy—but as its substrate.

India’s net-zero ambition will rest not only on megawatts installed—but on tonnes secured.

Profile

The NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India) is the premier policy think tank of the Government of India, established on January 1, 2015, to replace the 65-year-old Planning Commission. It serves as the nodal agency for catalyzing economic development, fostering cooperative federalism, and implementing a "bottom-up" approach to policy-making. 

Source: NITI Aayog (2026), Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero – Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply (opens in a new tab) (Vol. 10)

Critical Mineral Assessment