Could the Iran War Slow America's Critical-Material Reindustrialization?

Highlights

• Gulf disruptions have pushed oil above $100 and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields past 5%, raising the cost of financing long-duration critical-mineral projects.
• Rare-earth independence requires billions in patient capital across mines, separation, and magnet production—often years before meaningful cash flow materializes.
• The geopolitical paradox: instability proves why resilient supply chains are essential while simultaneously making them more expensive to build.
• Experts argue the case is strengthening for long-tenor loans, loan guarantees, strategic offtakes, and public-private risk sharing to bridge the capital gap.
• China built its critical-material ecosystem over decades; the West must now rebuild one as capital costs surge.