Market Report Predicts Rare Earth Boom by 2031, But Are Growth Rates Realistic?

Highlights

• Global Rare Earth Elements market projected to grow 9.4% CAGR through 2031
• Critical applications in defense, EVs, and electronics
• Western efforts to counter China’s 85%+ REE refining capacity face significant challenges:
  • Infrastructure
  • Regulatory
  • Geopolitical
• Report’s optimistic growth thesis may overlook:
  • Operational complexities
  • Market risks in rare earth element production

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A new report from DataM Intelligence (opens in a new tab) claims the global Rare Earth Elements (REE) market will grow at a robust 9.4% CAGR through 2031. But as geopolitical tensions mount and processing bottlenecks persist, the report’s optimistic projections warrant closer scrutiny.

Highlights of the Report

The study casts REEs as critical to global industrial strategy, citing expanding demand across defense, EVs, wind turbines, and electronics. Major players spotlighted include China Rare Earth Holdings, Lynas Corporation, and Arafura Resources. The report segments the market by type, source, application, and region—offering a detailed picture of potential demand scenarios.

A notable reference is Lynas’s U.S. partnership to build a Texas-based separation facility projected to deliver 5,000 tonnes of annual production—an example of Western efforts to counter China’s dominance.

What’s Missing?

While the report offers a wide-angle view, it glosses over key constraints cited at Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx).  Most notable, the topic of processing infrastructure and gaps.

The report highlights mining developments but underplays the refining and separation challenges that remain highly centralized in China.

The analysts also assume smooth project execution, sidestepping delays due to environmental regulation, local opposition, and land access—especially in Western jurisdictions.

Finally, the authors of this analysis downplay China’s market leverage. The report names China as a competitor but avoids seriously analyzing its export control policy, weaponization, or potential retaliatory moves in a trade war environment.

REEx Questions

Some critical questions are raised by this recently released report. 

1. Is 9.4% CAGR feasible? That projection assumes uninterrupted capital flow, streamlined permitting, and rapid tech transfer—all unlikely in today’s fragmented geopolitical climate.
2. Will new Western facilities reach commercial scale in time? The timelines for projects like Arafura’s Nolans or Lynas’ Texas plant are ambitious. History suggests commissioning and ramp-up often take longer and cost more than expected.
3. Where is the price forecast? The report provides no clear guidance on future pricing trends, which are essential for determining project viability given the capital-intensive nature of REE production.

Conclusion

The DataM Intelligence report delivers breadth, but its bullish growth thesis may be based more on market optimism than operational realities. With China still controlling 85 %+ of global REE refining capacity and trade policy volatility on the rise, a hard-nosed reassessment of risk-adjusted growth scenarios is long overdue.

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