Highlights

• Pakistan's Reko Diq deposit could become one of the world's largest copper mines, presenting an opportunity for the U.S. to diversify mineral supply chains away from China—but significant security, infrastructure, and governance challenges remain.
• While Pakistan holds substantial copper, gold, and potential lithium reserves, the country lacks a viable mine-to-market system, with limited processing capacity and existing infrastructure largely channeling output toward Chinese-controlled systems.
• The report underscores a critical gap between resource potential and reliable supply: Pakistan represents a high-risk, long-term prospect that highlights the slow, costly, and complex reality of rebuilding critical mineral supply chains.

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A report (opens in a new tab) from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds that Pakistan’s vast copper and mineral potential is real—but so are the risks. For the United States, the country represents an alluring but unstable path toward diversifying supply chains away from China.

A Frontier Rich in Ore—and Uncertainty

Pakistan’s mineral landscape carries the promise of scale. The Reko Diq deposit (opens in a new tab) alone could become one of the world’s largest copper mines, backed by Western financing and geopolitical interest.

For Washington, the logic is straightforward: reduce dependence on China by cultivating new sources. But the gap between resource potential and reliable supply remains wide—and stubborn.

What the Report Gets Right

The analysis rests on firm ground. Balochistan holds significant copper and gold, with indications—though not yet proven at scale—of lithium and rare-earth elements. At the same time, global demand for copper is rising sharply, driven by electrification, grid expansion, and data infrastructure.

In that context, the U.S. push to broaden its network of mineral partners is not optional. It is a strategic necessity.

Where Reality Intrudes

The constraints are not marginal. They are defining.

Security risks remain acute, with insurgent groups targeting infrastructure and foreign-backed projects. China’s presence is deeply embedded—not only in mining assets but in transport corridors and export routes. And Pakistan’s legal and regulatory environment, shaped by past disputes and weak enforcement, continues to deter long-term capital.

Even Reko Diq, the flagship project, has faced delays due to these conditions.

What the Optimism Skips Over

The report gestures toward opportunity but leaves a critical gap underexplored: Pakistan does not yet possess a viable mine-to-market system. There is no meaningful rare earth production. Processing capacity is limited. And much of the existing infrastructure channels output toward Chinese-controlled systems.

In practical terms, new supply risks reinforce the very dependency Washington is trying to escape.

Why It Matters

For investors and policymakers alike, Pakistan is less a solution than a test.

Can the United States operate effectively in high-risk jurisdictions? Can capital, security, and governance be aligned quickly enough to matter?

And yes, Pakistan is not without promise. But a promise is not a supply.

For now, it remains a long-term prospect—one that underscores a harder truth: rebuilding critical mineral supply chains will be slower, costlier, and more complex than policy slogans suggest.