Power Without a Flag: How the U.S. Is Reaching Into the Copper Belt

Highlights

• Orion Critical Mineral Consortium proposes acquiring 40% of Glencore's Mutanda and KCC operations in DRC, valued at approximately $9 billion, securing U.S. access to copper and cobalt without operational control.
• The two mines produced 247.8 kt of copper and 33.5 kt of cobalt in 2025, representing strategic leverage over DRC's 70% share of global cobalt supply through offtake rights rather than ownership.
• Orion CMC's $1.8 billion platform, backed by U.S. DFC and ADQ, signals a shift in industrial policy—deploying equity stakes and contractual control to rewire critical mineral supply chains.

---

Glencore (opens in a new tab) and the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (opens in a new tab) have entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding that could materially reshape Western access to copper and cobalt from Central Africa.

Under the proposal, Orion CMC would acquire a 40% stake in Glencore’s interests in MutandaMining (opens in a new tab) and KamotoCopper Company (opens in a new tab), implying a combined enterprise value of approximately $9 billion. The United States is moving closer to the source of critical minerals—not by nationalizing assets, but by buying influence and offtake rights.

What’s Firm—and What’s Still Contingent

Established facts:

• The MoU is explicitly non-binding and subject to due diligence, definitive documentation, and regulatory approvals.
• Orion CMC would gain non-executive board representation and the right to directits proportional share of production to nominated buyers, consistentwith the U.S.–DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement.
• Operational control remains with Glencore, preserving continuity and existing management systems.

Still unresolved:

• Final valuation mechanics, governance details, and transaction timing.
• Any increase beyond the proposed 40% interest.

This distinction matters. Investors should treat the announcement as strategic intent, not execution.

Why These Assets Matter

Mutanda and KCC are not peripheral holdings. In 2025, the two operations produced a combined ~247.8 kt of copper and ~33.5 kt of cobalt, placing them among the most consequential copper–cobalt complexes outside China.

Cobalt is the strategic fulcrum. The Democratic Republic of Congo supplies roughly 70% of global cobalt, and Glencore remains the largest Western producer. By securing offtake influence rather than operating control, Washington is pursuing a capital-light, leverage-heavy approach—anchoring supply without assuming mine-operator risk.

Power Without a Flag

Orion CMC—established in October 2025 and led by Orion Resource Partners, with participation from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation—signals a shift in industrial policy tools. Rather than relying on subsidies alone, the U.S. is deploying equity stakes, governance rights, and contractual offtake control.

This reflects a broader pattern: sovereignty through contracts and capital, not flags and ownership.

REEx Takeaway

A big, exciting deal, but of course, there is execution risk. The proposal signals seriousness and scale, yet its impact depends on closing conditions and long-term discipline.

If consummated, the transaction would strengthen U.S. and allied access to copper and cobalt while reinforcing Glencore’s position as the West’s anchor producer in the DRC. It is not a rare earth story. It is a critical-minerals power play—and a template worth watching.

Investor Profile

OrionCritical Mineral Consortium (Orion CMC) was formed in October 2025 as a $1.8 billion, U.S.-backed investment platform designed to strengthen American economic competitiveness and national security by securing critical mineral supply chains. Led by Orion Resource Partners in partnership with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and supported by matching capital from ADQ (state-owned sovereign investment and holding company of the Government of Abu Dhabi) the consortium brings together government-backed capital and private-sector mining expertise. With an initial $1.8 billion committed and a stated target of $5 billion, Orion CMC is structured to mobilize capital rapidly into critical minerals that underpin advanced manufacturing, defense, energy transition, data centers, and AI infrastructure.

Strategically, Orion CMC prioritizes existing or near-term producing assets over long-dated frontier exploration, aiming to close the gap between geopolitical urgency and industrial timelines. The consortium focuses on investing in mining and processing assets, managing offtake, developing domestic and allied-country processing capacity, and scaling cost-effective mineral technologies across emerging and established markets.

Positioned as a bridge between resource-rich jurisdictions and Western industrial demand, Orion CMC represents a shift toward sovereignty through capital, governance, and offtake control, rather than state ownership—marking one of the most consequential public–private efforts to rewire critical mineral supply chains in favor of the United States and its allies.

Source: Glencore / Orion CMC joint announcement, 3 Feb 2026.