RAND Evaluates U.S. Critical-Minerals Policies ? Finds Stockpiles Fastest, Tax Credits Industry Favorite

Highlights

• RAND evaluated stockpiling, tariffs, tax credits, permitting reform and government equity as U.S. critical-minerals policy tools, finding no single option meets all goals simultaneously.
• Stockpiling is the fastest path to supply resilience, but 81% of industry interviewees preferred production tax credits over government stockpiles as a long-term solution.
• China controlled over 70% of global refined rare earth output in 2025, with export restrictions on dysprosium, terbium and yttrium highlighting the geopolitical stakes.
• RAND warns that tariffs protecting upstream mineral producers can raise input costs for downstream magnet and alloy manufacturers, undermining the broader supply chain.
• The report recommends ending federal equity stakes in producers, extending production tax credits indefinitely, and sequencing policies by value-chain node rather than treating all minerals uniformly.