Highlights
- The Pentagon takes an unprecedented equity stake in MP Materials, signaling a major policy shift in critical mineral independence from China.
- The U.S. remains heavily dependent on China for rare earth imports, with 70% still coming from across the Pacific.
- While the MP Materials deal is groundbreaking, true independence requires developing midstream capabilities like separation, alloying, and magnet production.
It finally happened. For decades, U.S. officials wrung their hands about rare earth dependence while Beijing built an empire. Now, in a break with the gospel of laissez-faire, the Pentagon has taken an equity stake in MP Materials and locked in a $110/kg price floor for NdPr oxide. Let’s be blunt: no U.S. president—not Obama, not Biden, not even Trump in his first term—has gone this far in wielding state power to defend critical mineral supply chains. In the arena of industrial policy, Trump just ripped up the old playbook.
The Strongest Hand Yet
A recent entry via CNBC is right on the basics: the U.S. is still nearly captive to China, with 70% of rare earth imports coming from across the Pacific. And Beijing knows how to play the game, weaponizing price suppression to drive Western competitors into the ground. Trump’s intervention is a clear signal: America won’t let its defense platforms, from F-35 fighters to hypersonic, hang on Beijing’s goodwill. The message isn’t subtle—this White House will bend the market if it must.
Stock Frenzy and Wishful Thinking
But let’s inject some realism. Energy Fuels’ Mark Chalmers says, “One company doesn’t fix it.” He’s right, but don’t mistake his lobbying for inevitability. Energy Fuels is still a uranium shop moonlighting in rare earths. Yes, its shares popped nearly 200%, alongside NioCorp and others, but that’s speculation, not policy. The MP deal is historic—but it doesn’t mean Uncle Sam is about to cut checks for every would-be miner with a slick Washington pitch.
Where CNBC Pulls Its Punches
Here’s the bigger flaw in the coverage: this is not about one mine, one oxide, or one company. America’s choke point is not just mining—it’s the midstream. Separation, alloying, and magnet production are where China maintains its stranglehold. The Pentagon can backstop MP all it wants, but if the magnets still come from China, then Washington has bought time, not independence. Beijing controls roughly 90% of global magnet output. That’s the ballgame.
Provocative but True
Credit where it’s due: Trump has done more for critical minerals in one summer than all his predecessors combined. He adopted “strategic capitalism” and demonstrated that the sacred free-market ideology can be compromised under national security pressure. However, for rare earths (and, frankly, certain critical minerals), until the U.S. funds multiple separation plants, magnet factories, and genuine downstream integration, this remains a single bold move on a long chessboard dominated by China. The MP stake is historic, yes. It is also the opening gambit in a game that has no quick checkmate. Trump must also shift his more nationalist stance to adopt a new, multinational approach.
Citation: Spencer Kimball, CNBC, “Trump is wielding the power of the state to back critical mineral companies. These are the possible next targets (opens in a new tab),” Sept. 28, 2025.
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I would put my eggs in the Trump basket. The man knows how to build things!