Tungsten Crisis Splits the World in Two ? China Controls the Mine, the Midstream and the Gate

Highlights

• China produces ~79% of global tungsten and controls ~85% of APT refining capacity, giving it dominance over both mining and the critical chemical conversion stage.
• European APT prices hit $2,900–$3,100/mtu versus a normalized Chinese domestic price near $1,000/mtu, signaling two increasingly separated markets.
• Ex-China APT conversion capacity may outpace secure concentrate supply by 2030, shifting strategic value upstream to mobile, traceable tungsten feedstock.
• China's February 2025 export controls on APT and tungsten products add a licensing variable on top of price, making traceability an economic asset for Western buyers.
• The strategic winners may be companies controlling non-China concentrate, recycling streams, conversion capacity, and customer-qualified pathways simultaneously.