U.S. Faces Alarming Strategic Risk from Critical Mineral Shortages in Conflict with China, Warns New Military Review Analysis

Highlights

• U.S. is now dependent on foreign suppliers for over 50% of 58 mineral commodities, with China as the primary source.
• Department of Defense projects shortages in 69 critical materials in a potential conflict with China.
• Wischer recommends immediate national mobilization to restore mineral self-sufficiency and prevent potential military power collapse.

In a sobering analysis (opens in a new tab) published by Military Review (January-February 2025), Gregory D. Wischer lays out a deeply researched and historically grounded warning: the United States is gravely unprepared for a major military conflict with China due to severe vulnerabilities in its critical minerals supply chain. The paper, drawing from historical lessons of World War I, World War II, and the Korean War, warns that the U.S. now finds itself in a more precarious position than at any point in its modern wartime history.

The U.S. once led the world in mineral production. In 1913 and 1938, it was the dominant source of many vital materials. Today, the U.S. is dependent on foreign suppliers for over 50% of its consumption of 58 mineral commodities, with China being the top supplier for many. The U.S. has ceased domestic production of key defense-related minerals like tantalum and cobalt, and lacks meaningful stockpiles of crucial elements such as gallium, graphite, germanium, and rare earths. The Department of Defense projects shortages in 69 critical materials in a simulated war with China.

Wischer outlines three compounding risks: increased wartime production demands, expanded export restrictions by adversaries (including China and Russia), and severely disrupted shipping routes, especially through the South China Sea. Historical data shows that even when the U.S. led global mining, these pressures caused major bottlenecks. Today, with a hollowed-out mineral base, the consequences could be catastrophic.

The press release is clear: this is not simply a matter of economic competitiveness. It is a direct threat to national security and strategic deterrence. U.S. submarines, hypersonic missiles, fighter jets, and night-vision systems depend on materials almost entirely sourced from foreign adversaries. Unlike World War II, the U.S. cannot rapidly spin up new mines. The average timeline from discovery to production is now 13 years.

Wischer calls for immediate national mobilization: expanded and diversified stockpiling; aggressive incentives for U.S. mining and refining; tariffs and restrictions on Chinese mineral imports; and "friendshoring" via ownership stakes and offtake agreements with allies. He warns that American military power could collapse under its own supply chain fragility without a Manhattan Project-scale effort to reconstitute U.S. mineral self-sufficiency.

In conclusion, the Rare Earth Exchanges echoes Wischer's dire call: U.S. policymakers must treat this as a wartime emergency, not a peacetime policy option. Minerals are no longer commodities—they are weapons. While President Trump has amplified the need for urgency,  if Washington does not act now, it may soon discover that valor alone cannot offset a nation's dependence on its adversaries for the metals of war.