America Wants China's Rare Earth Resilience Without China's Industrial Planning and Coordination

Highlights

• China controls ~60% of mined magnet rare earths, 90% of refined production, and 90%+ of sintered permanent magnets, giving it enormous geopolitical leverage.
• DFARS restrictions on covered NdFeB magnets take effect January 1, 2027, making a theoretically elegant competitive ecosystem arriving in 2032 irrelevant for near-term defense procurement.
• REEx introduces the concept of National-Security Option Value, arguing that standard discounted cash flow models systematically undervalue strategic resilience in a Great Powers Era.
• America faces a capacity paradox: announced nameplate tonnage is not the same as commissioned, qualified, and scaled production ready for defense or automotive customers.
• REEx favors interoperable integration over universal mine-to-magnet vertical integration or laissez-faire fragmentation, with government support tied to measurable industrial milestones.