CSIS Sees the Rare-Earth Problem. What of the Industrial Clock?

Highlights

• The US-China summit moved the diplomatic clock but did almost nothing to advance the industrial clock for rare earth supply chain independence.
• China can adjust export licensing quickly; America cannot build dysprosium separation lines, metal plants, or qualified NdFeB magnet factories by executive order.
• REEx identifies a Transition Vulnerability Window between America's decision to reduce Chinese dependence and the arrival of sufficient qualified alternative capacity.
• DFARS restrictions on covered Chinese-origin NdFeB supply chains take effect January 1, 2027, while the current US-China reprieve runs only until January 10.
• Real American resilience requires qualified tonnes of Dy, Tb, NdPr, metals, alloys, and magnets deliverable outside China—not just mines announced or agreements signed.