New Study Reveals Breakthrough Metric to Value Rare Earth Projects-Could This Help Solve Global Supply Crisis?

Highlights

• Researchers create innovative VHVREO Metric to compare rare earth element project values beyond traditional grade and tonnage measurements.
• New methodology helps prioritize critical rare earth deposits like dysprosium, terbium, and scandium by analyzing market prices and elemental ratios.
• Tool could help close global supply gaps for high-demand rare earth elements by identifying most promising clay-hosted projects worldwide.

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Prof. Kenneth D. Collerson (opens in a new tab), University of Queensland, along with co-authors Prof. Roussos Dimitrakopoulos (McGill University) and Guy Greville, have developed a powerful new way to compare the real value of rare earth element (REE) projects—especially those hosted in clay-rich soils. This could help investors and policymakers prioritize the most promising global deposits as supply pressures mount on critical materials like dysprosium (Dy), terbium (Tb), neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and scandium (Sc).

The paper was published in Ore Geology Reviews (opens in a new tab), May 2025.

The Problem

Many rare earth projects today are judged mostly on total grade or tonnage. But that’s not enough. Some of the most valuable rare earths—used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense systems—like Dy and Tb are much rarer and harder to source, especially outside China. Global supply gaps are forecasted to widen by 2030. Until now, there was no standard way to compare which deposits might help solve that problem.

The Breakthrough

The study introduces a simple but powerful equation—called the “VHVREO Metric”—that evaluates deposits based not just on total REE content, but on the ratio of heavy rare earths to total REEs (HREO/TREO), the actual market prices of individual elements, and the presence of Scandium. It’s a better measure of what really matters: the commercial value of high-demand REEs.

Using public data from ten global clay-hosted rare earth projects—from Brazil and Australia to Uganda and China—the authors validated the tool. One standout project: North Stanmore in Western Australia (opens in a new tab), which shows high levels of both heavy REEs and scandium, while maintaining low levels of radioactivity—an environmental plus.

Why This Matters

“This metric allows the industry to stop comparing apples to oranges,” said Collerson. “We now have a clear, transparent way to assess value based on real-world economic needs—especially for the rarest, most important REEs that face looming supply gaps.” The new tool could help investors, governments, and miners better prioritize exploration dollars and fast-track the most critical, scalable, and ethical projects.

How Close Are We to Commercial Readiness?

Several projects in the study, like North Stanmore (Australia), Makuutu (Uganda), and Penco (Chile), show high potential. Many are already undergoing advanced metallurgical testing. With the right political and financial backing—and transparency from companies in reporting full assay data—some could help close global supply gaps for DyTb and Sc within this decade.

Key Takeaways

• Not all rare earth deposits are created equal. It’s not just about size or grade—composition matters.
• Dy, Tb, and Sc are critical. These elements are in high demand and short supply, especially outside China.
• New metric gives industry a standard yardstick. It helps level the playing field and identify the best deposits for investment and development.
• Environmental bonus: Clay-hosted systems often have muchlower radioactivity than hard rock or placer deposits, easing permitting risks.

This metric may become an important standard for industry analysts, policy leaders, and responsible investors who want to build resilient rare earth supply chains.

Prof. Kenneth D. Collerson, University of Queensland