The West Is Mining More Rare Earths. The Real Bottleneck Comes Next

Highlights

• China controls 87–91% of rare earth processing and refining, with even stronger dominance in heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium
• Lynas, MP Materials, Energy Fuels, Neo, Solvay, Iluka, and others are building ex-China midstream capacity, but a dangerous gap exists between announced and dependable supply
• A plant being built does not guarantee nameplate output, spec-compliant oxide, or finished magnets—the full value chain remains the critical challenge
• REEx models when the West could realistically reach 20%, 40%, and 60% rare earth separation independence from China