China and United States Extend Trade Truce as Rare-Earth Supply Dispute Remains Unresolved

Highlights

• The Xi-Trump summit produced trade and investment boards and a coal purchase commitment, but no resolution to China's rare-earth export controls.
• China retains its licensing architecture over critical minerals, giving Beijing ongoing leverage over U.S., European, and Japanese supply chains.
• REEx warns of a Transition Vulnerability Window where U.S. manufacturers remain dependent on Chinese rare earths before domestic alternatives reach commercial scale.
• Earlier agreements covering yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium failed to prevent supply disruptions, underscoring the limits of diplomatic frameworks alone.
• Strategic inventories, allied offtakes, and accelerated ex-China processing capacity are essential to bridge the gap between current dependence and future independence.