Technological University Dublin Study Finds AI?Rare Earth Physical Dependence Has Yet to Reach Financial Markets

Highlights

• TU Dublin researcher Payal Mehra found no statistically significant co-integration or Granger causality between REMX and the Magnificent Seven index from 2022–2026.
• Despite no financial linkage, AI infrastructure physically depends on rare-earth-containing components like NdFeB permanent magnets in data center cooling systems.
• The two markets showed increasing alignment from 2024 onward, suggesting markets may be beginning to price in critical mineral constraints.
• Static whole-sample models may obscure an emerging post-2024 regime; future research should test NdPr, Dy, and Tb prices against data-center capex directly.
• Physical rare-earth market data—oxide prices, trade flows, and contracting—may reveal industrial signals before they appear in broad equity indices.