MP Materials Down 60%: Motley Fool Sees a Subsidy Problem. REEx Sees a Much Bigger Industrial Test

Highlights

• Pentagon price protection accounted for ~62% of MP Materials' adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, raising legitimate earnings-quality concerns.
• Heavy rare earth bottlenecks and unproven magnet manufacturing at scale represent bigger risks than subsidy dependency alone.
• REEx ranks MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths as the two most credible Western rare earth investments, but neither is risk-free.
• The true test is whether U.S. industrial policy can create competitive manufacturing before government support expires.