McKinsey Projects $62 Billion Rare Earth Investment Need by 2035 as China Retains 90% Refining Dominance

Highlights

• McKinsey estimates $62 billion in rare earth capital needs by 2035 as part of a $4.2 trillion mining and metals investment requirement.
• China controls approximately 69% of rare earth mining and 90% of refining, with Chinese firms owning 52% of newly commissioned refining assets from 2021 to 2025.
• North American refining capacity could reach 117% of regional demand by 2035, but this covers only oxides, not metals, alloys, or finished magnets.
• REEx's Transition Vulnerability Window framework highlights that ownership, processing capability, and full supply chain control matter more than geographic location of facilities.
• Supply-demand gaps for rare earths could exceed 20% by 2035 even under McKinsey's central scenario, underscoring the urgency of building complete Western supply chains.