Highlights

• China blocks exports of seven key rare earth elements.
• Potential 60-500% price spikes in global markets.
• Calculated geopolitical strategy targeting specific high-value minerals used in defense, green tech, and healthcare industries.
• Experts predict a potential global supply chain reset.
• Increased non-Chinese investment in rare earth mining and processing infrastructure.

The People’s Republic of China has moved to restrict exports of seven key rare earth elements in a calculated act of retaliation against sweeping new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. As confirmed by multiple media in the West, these controls have disrupted global supply chains and reignited debate over China’s strategic dominance of the critical minerals industry.

The new measures, announced April 4 by China’s Ministry of Commerce, place samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium under an opaque permit system, effectively halting exports.

Beijing claims the move is a defensive measure, but the selection of these heavy rare earths—used in everything from electric vehicles to missile guidance systems—points to a far more targeted geopolitical play. Analysts note that these elements are harder to extract, refine, and substitute than their lighter counterparts like neodymium, which remains unaffected—evidence of China’s strategic calibration to hurt the U.S. and its allies without undercutting its own manufacturers.

Since the announcement, multiple Chinese suppliers have declared force majeure, halting deliveries of already contracted shipments. The result: stockpiles in Europe, the U.S., and Japan are rapidly depleting, and manufacturers are bracing for 60–500% price spikes—if they can source the materials at all. Sectors on alert include defense (radar, sonar, missiles), green tech (EVs, turbines, solar), and healthcare (MRIs, PET scans). The bottleneck is compounded by China’s near-total control of rare earth refining and magnet production—estimated at over 90% globally—leaving Western mining projects like Mountain Pass and Brazil’s Serra Verde dependent on Chinese processing infrastructure.

This is not China's first use of critical materials as a weapon**.** Similar moves on antimony, bismuth, gallium, and germanium have preceded this, pushing prices to historic highs and freezing supply chains. And while China lost a WTO case for doing the same to Japan in 2010, its grip on the rare earths market remains entrenched fifteen years later.

What follows may be a global pivot. The Biden administration attempted to catalyze domestic rare earth development through executive orders and funding, but progress has been slow. Now, under Trump, the trade war has reignited urgency in Washington and Brussels. A surge in non-Chinese investment, from mining to magnet recycling, is expected. Still, as Holland & Knight lawyers caution, building new, clean midstream infrastructure will take years—possibly decades.  Rare Earth Exchanges has suggested that to achieve rare earth and critical mineral resilience, industrial policy declaration is necessary, and about a decade of assuming full throttle policy and investment is declared today.

As Reuters’ Andy Home observed, every time Trump escalates tariffs, China strikes back at the heart of America’s material lifelines—and this latest move could either trigger a global supply chain reset or tighten Beijing’s stranglehold on critical minerals.