Brazil Critical Minerals Study Projects $12.4 Billion Downstream Prize?but China Still Owns the Chokepoint

Highlights

• A U.S. Chamber/AmCham Brazil study models $20.5B in critical-mineral investment and a deeper-integration scenario adding $12.4B GDP and 446,000 jobs by 2050.
• China held roughly 85% of global rare-earth refining in 2025, meaning Brazil's geology does not automatically translate into a Brazilian supply chain.
• Serra Verde produces mixed rare-earth carbonate with Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb, but Phase I output is locked into a 15-year U.S.-backed offtake starting Q4 2026.
• The real strategic contest is control of the processing steps—separation, metallization, alloying, and magnet manufacturing—not mining alone.