Highlights
- Lula defeated Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%, complicating U.S. efforts to secure preferential access to Brazil's critical minerals.
- USA Rare Earth's $2.8 billion Serra Verde acquisition highlights tension between foreign ownership and Brazil's demand for domestic industrial value.
- China's advantage is industrial and infrastructural, not merely ideological—Western partners must offer bankable alternatives to compete.
- Brazil's rare earth potential and dominant niobium position make it a strategic swing power in the Great Powers Era 2.0.
- The decisive factor is which partner helps Brazil capture more value from its resources, not which holds the strongest political alignment.
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