Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Wins Brazil's Presidency With 51.8%, Raising Stakes in U.S.-China Rare Earth Competition

Oct 26, 2026

4 minute read.

Highlights

  • Lula defeated Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%, complicating U.S. efforts to secure preferential access to Brazil's critical minerals.
  • USA Rare Earth's $2.8 billion Serra Verde acquisition highlights tension between foreign ownership and Brazil's demand for domestic industrial value.
  • China's advantage is industrial and infrastructural, not merely ideological—Western partners must offer bankable alternatives to compete.
  • Brazil's rare earth potential and dominant niobium position make it a strategic swing power in the Great Powers Era 2.0.
  • The decisive factor is which partner helps Brazil capture more value from its resources, not which holds the strongest political alignment.

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By Daniel

Inspired to launch Rare Earth Exchanges in part due to his lifelong passion for geology and mineralogy, and patriotism, to ensure America and free market economies develop their own rare earth and critical mineral supply chains.

6 Comments

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Avatar of Fundamental
Fundamental

Active member

192 messages 65 likes

Thought provoking, MP, USAR and LYC have all made recent acquisitions in Brazil, could there now be a backlash from US investors fearing a no longer subjugated source for their feedstocks?

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Avatar of John
John

Administrator

638 messages 474 likes

IMHO - without strong govt policies (ie ban on chinese magnets and rare earths)....there is not enough incentive for people to buy ex-China. And China keeps kicking the 'can' down the road. On purpose. They know that in 10 years the west could supply themselves. But the longer it takes.....the better strategically for themselves.

By strategic...i mean....keep the west's rare earth and magnet sectors small/fragmented.....then....when robots are starting to scale up....use all the China capacity to supply themselves internally. Leaving the west 5-10 years behind....

With China's population going to reduce by 1/3 in the next 10-15 years....they need robots to work. This is massively leapfrog them. It will be like another industrial revolution. Powered by magnets.

And the west will be so far behind....it may never catch up (till the next revolution...)

China built its rare earth and magnet industries through decades of state support and central planning. Do we really expect the West’s free markets to compete in the short term? Market competition may deliver better outcomes over time, but right now, Western rare earth and magnet producers remain at the mercy of China’s policy and pricing decisions.

Key things the western govt's need to do:
- Drive the west's demand by banning (or massive tarrifs) Chinese rare earths and magnets.
- Provide cheap financing for these companies to kick start it all
- Provide ex-China pricing.

We are doing our part with the pricing...have a look here. We have probably better insights into this market than the other players at S&P and Benchmark. When you dive into their methodology....they ring a couple of traders. That is all they do!!!

Here is our pricing (members only):
https://rareearthexchanges.com/rare-earth-prices/

And our marketplace is actually working. With people meeting and doing deals.
REEx Marketplace - Click on this link

Anyway...bit of a rant...but i'm just dismayed with how the west is screwing it all up..

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Avatar of Fundamental
Fundamental

Active member

192 messages 65 likes

But it is not just about EV's and Robots. It is now about the future of the West's and the USA's Industries being able to continue operating. The number of Data centers currently in construction alone will soak up whatever dregs that China is currently drip feeding the West's market with.

We have already lost two years with Trump's 'America first' policies. As I have said on a number of occasions MP, USAR are incapable of closing the supply/demand gap, especially in those ultra-critical HREEs, Elk Creek is not going to be economically viable without continuous OPEX top ups and Brazil's Risk profile has just taken a substantial hit.

That leaves us with only Australia, Canada and Angola having anywhere near the capacity to close the gap.

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Avatar of John
John

Administrator

638 messages 474 likes

SE Asia is also working quietly in the background too.

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Avatar of Fundamental
Fundamental

Active member

192 messages 65 likes

Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam will do what China tells them to, India is already aligned with BRICS and Malaysia / Indo' have yet to publish any deposit data of significance? and might have trouble achieving ESG standards even if they do find a monster.

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Avatar of John
John

Administrator

638 messages 474 likes

Thats why i said 'quietly'.....there is lots of work going on in the background for alot of countries. But it all comes back to economics and politics.

The key is always....who will process it to an oxide...and deal with the waste.....

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