Highlights
- China's rare earth price index closed at 267.0, sitting 167% above its 2010 base but well below early-2026 peaks near 310.
- NdPr oxide weakened in China while Western contracts set floors at $110/kg, exposing a growing gap between domestic and ex-China pricing.
- Terbium oxide outside China can reach $4,500–$4,700/kg versus under $1,000/kg domestically, reflecting severe supply deficits and export restrictions.
- Yttrium oxide has spiked to $1,100–$1,575/kg outside China against a domestic price of roughly $10/kg, driven by tight export controls.
- Investors are urged to scrutinize contract terms including floors, escalation formulas, take-or-pay provisions, and export-license responsibility when evaluating rare earth deals.
China's official rare earth price index closed August 4, 2026, at 267.0, meaning the association's modeled price basket was 167% above its 2010 base level. The translated product sheet shows weaker prices for praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, and mixed neodymium-praseodymium products, while dysprosium and terbium oxides held steady. The index remains below its early-2026 peak near 310 but well above 2024 levels.
REEx Insight: One Market, Two Price Realities
The headline is not simply that Chinese prices softened. It is that "the rare earth price" no longer exists as one reliable global number.
Chinese domestic quotations reflect local transactions, policy controls (including the influence of the Chinese Communist Party), export licensing, and an opaque index whose constituent weights and trading volumes are not disclosed. Western contracts increasingly use security-of-supply premiums and government-supported floors and remain overwhelmingly confidential.
MP Materials' ten-year U.S. Department of Defense agreement establishes a $110-per-kilogram NdPr floor. Serra Verde's fifteen-year offtake reportedly sets floors of $110 for NdPr, $575 for dysprosium, and $2,050 for terbium, with shared upside above those levels.
REEx Daily Price Watch
China conversions use approximately RMB6.78 per U.S. dollar. Ex-China spot indications are the latest publicly visible ranges, not synchronized August 4 assessments.
| Product | China (RMB/kg) | China (USD/kg) | Ex-China Market Range / Contract Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NdPr Oxide | 734.7–754.7 ↓ | 108.4–111.3 | $110–125/kg (market range); $110/kg contractual floor (MP Materials / DoD; Serra Verde agreement) |
| Dysprosium Oxide | 1,380–1,420 — | 203.5–209.4 | $300–350/kg (reported market range); $575/kg contractual floor (Serra Verde agreement)—driven by bespoke contractual dynamics |
| Terbium Oxide | 6,695–6,755 — | 987.5–996.3 | $1,150–1,250/kg (reported market range); $2,050/kg contractual floor (Serra Verde agreement); driven by bespoke contractual dynamics. Note that in some cases this element is not even accessible. Terbium oxide prices outside China can climb as high as $4,500 to $4,700 per kilogram, driven by severe supply deficits and export restrictions, representing a massive premium over domestic Chinese prices. |
| Holmium Oxide | 594.7–614.7 ↓ | 87.7–90.7 | Outside China, industrial bulk prices for holmium oxide generally range from $88 to $97 per kilogram for commercial contract volumes, reflecting delivered costs that include logistics, export controls, and tight heavy rare earth supply chains. However, pricing becomes far less transparent outside large industrial transactions. Historical U.S. import data show landed prices ranging from approximately $67 to $180 per kilogram, depending on purity, availability, and market conditions. For research laboratories and specialty chemical buyers purchasing small quantities, retail premiums can increase prices dramatically, with kilogram-equivalent costs reaching $3,000 to more than $6,000 per kilogram for small packages. The wide spread underscores that outside China, holmium oxide pricing is driven not only by market fundamentals but also by order volume, product purity, supplier relationships, and the limited liquidity of the global heavy rare earth market. |
| Yttrium Oxide | 58.7–62.7 — | 8.7–10.2 | Outside of China, yttrium prices have spiked dramatically, reaching peaks between $1,100 and $1,575 per kilogram for high-purity yttrium oxide. This massive increase is driven by tight Chinese export controls and severe shortages in Western markets, contrasted with a domestic price of roughly $10/kg inside China. |
Public ex-China price discovery remains thin despite multiple assessments from the likes of Fastmarkets, Argus, and others.
Contract Terms That Move the Price
Investors should examine product purity and form; benchmark and publication; delivery location and Incoterm; floor, ceiling, and escalation formula; foreign-exchange basis; payability; treatment and refining charges; volume commitments; take-or-pay provisions; quality penalties; shared upside; export-license responsibility; force majeure; assay rights; duration; and price-reopener clauses.
Source: This report originates from an official Chinese industry association—not technically a state-owned media company—but reflects data collected from a state-dominated industry. Independent verification is essential.
0 Comments
No replies yet
Loading new replies...
Moderator
Join the full discussion at the Rare Earth Exchanges Forum →