Terbium Study Maps China's 1990-2050 Supply Cycle-Finds Persistent Deficits in Nearly Every Future Scenario

Highlights

• Across 18 modeled scenarios, nearly all show China's terbium demand exceeding supply through 2050, with deficits reaching as high as 4.84 kilotonnes.
• Electric vehicles are projected to become the dominant driver of terbium demand, displacing traditional lighting and display applications.
• Researchers conclude that reducing terbium intensity per magnet—through grain-boundary diffusion and improved designs—offers greater mitigation potential than expanding mining alone.
• China's integrated rare-earth system means ex-China buyers must ask not how much Tb China produces, but how much will remain available for export.
• The study highlights that building NdPr magnet capacity does not automatically resolve bottlenecks caused by constrained heavy rare earth flows like terbium and dysprosium.