Will the Critical Minerals Boom Create Its Own Bust? Hallgarten + Company Says Investors Should Ask Who Will Buy the Metal

Highlights

• Hallgarten + Company cautions that Western governments may build more critical-mineral supply than customers actually need, risking a market bust.
• The firm stresses that Chinese dependency does not equal Western shortage, and Western shortage does not equal an investable project.
• Antimony's post-export-control price surge may have encouraged questionable project promotion, with Chinese domestic prices now potentially far lower.
• Hallgarten holds Rainbow Rare Earths as its rare-earth long position while shorting USA Rare Earth and NioCorp.
• Government offtakes and price floors may protect favored producers while leaving marginal projects exposed to a coming shakeout.