Japan's Yttrium Stockpiles Approach Exhaustion as Chinese Export Controls Drive 128-Fold Price Gap

Highlights

• Japan's yttrium stockpiles may run out within months, threatening semiconductor and aerospace manufacturing supply chains.
• Prices outside China reached $1,150/kg versus $9/kg domestically, reflecting a geopolitical scarcity premium rather than a sustainable market signal.
• USGS reports U.S. yttrium imports fell 63% from 2022 to 2025, with no fully commercial domestic separation facilities identified.
• The core risk is scarce qualified separation capacity, not mineral deposits—high prices alone cannot create processing infrastructure overnight.
• China's April 2025 licensing controls remain in force, defining a Transition Vulnerability Window between supply restriction and Western replacement capacity.