Chinese Researchers Model PrNdTbDy Prices - But the Ex-China Market Has Changed the Equation

Highlights

• A 2026 China Mining Magazine study identifies EV sales, supply, policy, and macroeconomic forces as key drivers of PrNdTbDy price volatility from 2007–2023.
• China's April 2025 export restrictions created a structural break: European dysprosium and terbium now trade at multiples of Chinese domestic prices.
• Ex-China terbium oxide is tracked at roughly $2,050–$5,000+/kg versus ~$1,000/kg inside China, reflecting scarcity, provenance, and bilateral market opacity.
• Chinese researchers themselves recommend overseas resource investment, strategic reserves, and long-term contracts—signaling Beijing thinks beyond mines toward supply chain control.
• REEx argues rare earths should be modeled from the magnet backward as well as the mine forward, given downstream EV, robotics, and defense demand pull.