Research Group Flags Rare Earth Price Inflection-But REEx Sees a Deeper Break in How the Market Is Priced

Highlights

• CRU Group reports Rotterdam heavy rare earth prices far above Chinese benchmarks, with yttrium forecast at 78x the Chinese price in 2026.
• REEx argues there is no single global rare earth price—value is shaped by origin, qualification, contract structure, and state-backed economics.
• China controls 99% of global HREE separation; Dy/Tb exports in January 2026 were 83% below January 2025 levels.
• Government floor contracts like MP's $110/kg NdPr and Serra Verde's $575/kg Dy are strategic financing tools, not true market prices.
• REEx contends that sampling-based spot quotations can be misleading in a market dominated by confidential, bespoke bilateral contracts.