Highlights
- China controls over 85% of global rare earth refining, maintaining significant market leverage.
- International projects in Greenland, Brazil, and Kazakhstan aim to create alternative rare earth sources.
- Despite diversification efforts, China remains the primary bottleneck in rare earth processing and magnet production.
Kandy Wong’s SCMP dispatch covers a familiar theme: global pushback against China’s dominance in rare earths. It highlights real developments—Greenland loans, Kazakh partnerships, and Brazilian drill programs—yet glosses over scale, timelines, and lingering Chinese leverage. So what’s solid and what’s still a smokescreen?
What’s Accurate
Yes, China has a dominant grip. It controls over 85% of global rare earth refining and a sizable share of magnet production. Beijing’s June 2025 signal—tighter export controls via "qualified applications"—has undeniably accelerated diversification moves, especially by the U.S., Australia, and EU.
The projects cited are real:
- St George Mining is exploring Brazil’s Araxá project, historically known for niobium and light rare earths.
- KazResources & Cove Kaz Capital have indeed teamed with Kazakhstan’s geology agency at Akbulak—though this is early-stage work.
- Critical Metals Corp’s $120M EXIM loan is confirmed and part of a broader U.S. push into Greenland, long eyed as a non-China REE source.
- Lynas Rare Earths, notably, is producing separated dysprosium outside China—a rare feat in the heavy rare earth space.
Where It Slips
The article frames these as a "flurry" of countermeasures, but omits critical scale: none of these projects is near commercial output. Greenland is a decade-long play, Brazil's REE mining faces ESG and infrastructure barriers, and Kazakhstan’s metallurgical roadmap is still on paper. Meanwhile, China’s Big Six REE groups continue consolidating upstream and downstream control, especially in magnet production.
Also missing: supply chain dependencies. Even if mined outside China, most rare earths still flow through Chinese separation and alloying facilities. Without alternative refining capacity, China remains the bottleneck.
Bias and Framing
The article maintains a geopolitical tilt, subtly implying that China’s dominance is nefarious while U.S.-led projects are portrayed as noble catch-up efforts. It downplays that China’s rare earth lead is rooted in decades of state strategy, not just protectionism.
Conclusion
SCMP captures the momentum—but oversells the immediacy. Investors should track these international projects, but temper enthusiasm with realism. Until refining and magnet production are scaled outside China, Beijing’s “strong hand” remains firmly on the wheel.
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Source: South China Morning Post (SCMP), “China’s rare earth dominance faces global pushback but Beijing has ‘strong hand’” by Kandy Wong, July 8, 2025
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