Could Taiwan Become a Casualty of the Rare-Earth Trade War? Washington's Vulnerability Meets Beijing's Leverage

Highlights

• China's rare-earth export controls and a paused $14 billion U.S. arms package for Taiwan are converging ahead of the September 24 Xi-Trump summit.
• No public evidence confirms a rare-earth-for-Taiwan bargain, but the strategic overlap creates what REEx calls a Transition Vulnerability Window.
• November 10 marks expiration of China's suspension of expanded 2025 rare-earth export controls, adding urgency to U.S. supply-chain independence efforts.
• Taiwan's $29.7 billion backlog of U.S. weapons orders illustrates a broader defense-industrial production bottleneck compounding America's leverage deficit.
• China holds critical materials leverage, Taiwan holds semiconductor leverage, and the U.S. remains partially dependent on both in an era of interlocking dependencies.