Trump's China Trade War Reached Its Limits Where Beijing Was Strongest: Rare Earths

Highlights

• China imposed export licensing on seven rare earth elements in April 2025, halting shipments and exposing U.S. supply chain dependence
• Geneva talks reduced U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30%, but military-use rare earth magnets remained unresolved a year later
• USGS estimated U.S. net import reliance for rare-earth compounds and metals at 67% in 2025, keeping the Transition Vulnerability Window open
• China still controls roughly 90% of refined rare earth output and 94–95% of permanent magnets, giving Beijing lasting industrial leverage
• REEx modeling suggests the U.S. is 3 to several years away from meaningful supply chain resilience under current industrial policy trajectories