China Rare Earth Price Index Holds at 262.4 And Heavy Rare Earths Still Trade in Two Different Worlds

Highlights

• CREIA's Rare Earth Price Index sits at 262.4, but ex-China prices for heavy rare earths like terbium can run four to five times higher than domestic Chinese benchmarks.
• China controls roughly 85% of rare-earth refining, making Western transactions bilateral, confidential and sporadic—creating a price archipelago rather than a single global market.
• Pentagon-backed price floors for NdPr, dysprosium and terbium are contractual support mechanisms, not industry-wide spot prices, and should not be generalized across transactions.
• China's suspended October 2025 rare-earth export controls are set to expire November 10, creating a potential volatility date for heavy rare earths if U.S.-China talks stall.
• Yttrium supply remains constrained and intermittent following Chinese controls, underscoring that physical availability—not published benchmarks—is increasingly the dominant price signal.