France's Rare Earth Envoy Forecasts China Diversification in 3-5 Years-REEx Forecasts Expose a Much Longer Dependency Crisis

Highlights

• REEx models project only 20% durable Western rare earth supply-chain resilience by 2033–2035, far beyond France's 3-5 year forecast.
• China controls roughly 91% of magnet rare earth refining and 94% of sintered permanent-magnet production as of 2024, making rapid diversification unlikely.
• Non-China downstream capacity for metals, alloys, and magnets represents only about 36% of the announced mining pipeline for 2035, exposing a critical bottleneck.
• The IEA estimates US$60 billion in investment is needed over the next decade just to begin diversifying magnet rare earth supply chains.
• REEx warns of a Transition Vulnerability Window lasting into the 2040s, during which Chinese price pressure could undermine fragile Western projects before they reach scale.