China's Yttrium Export Restrictions Drive Overseas Prices to $1,150/kg, Threatening Japanese Defense Supply Chains

Highlights

• International yttrium prices hit $1,150/kg—over 127 times China's domestic price of ~$9/kg—following Beijing's April 2025 export controls.
• Japan's yttrium oxide imports from China collapsed from 51 tonnes to just 4 tonnes in September, with stockpiles potentially months from exhaustion.
• U.S. defense readiness faces indirect risk as Japanese suppliers of jet-engine thermal-barrier coatings and advanced ceramics struggle to source material.
• Western nations hold potential yttrium resources but lack scaled separation and purification capacity to replace Chinese supply quickly.
• The crisis illustrates a Transition Vulnerability Window where China can restrict critical inputs faster than allies can build alternative supply chains.