European Union Rare Earth Policy Fails to Turn 15 Years of Warnings Into Industrial Capacity

Highlights

• China maintained 87%–95% of global rare earth processing from 2011–2023 despite upstream diversification efforts elsewhere
• EU end-of-life recycling input stayed below 1% and no sustained net expansion in separation or magnet capacity occurred during the study period
• Japan reduced Chinese rare earth dependence from 85% to 58% by combining government financing, overseas investment, and substitution research
• The Critical Raw Materials Act has created a project pipeline, but success must be measured in commercial tonnes produced, not announcements
• Processing, magnets, and recycling remain Europe's critical supply chain weaknesses, representing the structural chokepoint of the entire REE chain