Mexico Widens U.S. Trade Lead Over China: But Rare Earth Dependence Hides Beneath the Nearshoring Boom

Highlights

• U.S.-Mexico goods trade reached $871.6 billion in 2025, more than double the $414.6 billion traded with China the same year.
• Nearshoring shifts final assembly to Mexico but does not automatically relocate upstream rare earth oxide, metal, or magnet supply chains away from China.
• The U.S. and Mexico launched a Critical Minerals Action Plan in February 2026, with negotiators targeting 'non-market inputs' in North American supply chains by March.
• Technology imports from Mexico surged from $57.3B to $104.9B in early 2026, while comparable Chinese imports fell—yet material origin inside those products remains largely unresolved.
• USMCA rules of origin, traceability, and mineral provenance could become as economically critical as Mexican manufacturing capacity itself.