U.S. China Economic Warfare Study Finds Export Controls Can Erode Their Own Power as Global Supply Chains Adapt

Highlights

• Economist Rajan argues repeated U.S. and Chinese trade restrictions gradually weaken their own coercive effectiveness as countries build alternative supply chains.
• REEx identifies a counterforce: export controls can accelerate stockpiling and raise prices, potentially increasing China's leverage before alternatives become viable.
• The Transition Vulnerability Window keeps shifting because mines and processing plants take years to build while political decisions happen in weeks.
• Dependence may shift from direct Chinese supply to third-country networks that still rely on Chinese technology or materials, not true independence.
• REEx concludes the decisive question is whether independent industrial capacity emerges before the next supply crisis, not whether dependence eventually weakens.