Pricing and Financing Trends in Rare-Earth and Critical-Minerals Deals

Highlights

• MP Materials secured a $110/kg NdPr price floor, $150M DoD loan, and $1B construction financing in a single 2025 government-backed package.
• Serra Verde's 15-year take-or-pay deal sets floors of $575/kg for Dy and $2,050/kg for Tb, with $565M in DFC financing available.
• Arafura's Nolans project shows how ECA-backed debt and binding offtakes covering 66% of capacity are now prerequisites for project bankability.
• Traders like Traxys still play a role, but direct OEM and government-supported structures are reducing reliance on traditional intermediaries.
• Public deal disclosures rarely reveal Incoterms, insurance, or payment timing—terms that can materially alter realized project economics.