Japan's Critical Minerals Strategy: Model or Warning?

Highlights

• China's share of Japan's rare-earth imports fell from 85% in 2009 to 58% in 2020, but aggregate figures mask dangerous element-level chokepoints in dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium.
• The 2026 China-Japan export confrontation exposed remaining weaknesses in Japan's strategy, with Chinese shipments of Dy, Tb, and Y to Japan nearly nonexistent in May.
• Japan's Caremag project in France aims to supply Dy/Tb equivalent to roughly 20% of future Japanese demand, signaling ongoing HREE insecurity despite decades of investment.
• True supply chain resilience must be measured node-by-node—feedstock, separation, oxide, metal, alloy, magnet, qualification, and end user—not just at the import-share level.
• Japan began diversifying 15 years before most Western nations and still faces critical vulnerabilities, illustrating how capital-intensive genuine mineral independence really is.