The Crisis of Industrial Time: Why America Needs a Far Better Industrial Policy Before China Tightens Its Grip

Highlights

• REEx proprietary modeling projects only 20–24% non-China rare earth supply-chain resilience by 2033–2035, with 50% resilience potentially delayed until 2042–2045 or later.
• China controls 91% of rare earth refining and 94% of sintered permanent magnet manufacturing, giving it leverage far beyond the mining stage that new Western mines cannot quickly offset.
• The Transition Vulnerability Window means the West could become more exposed before it becomes safer, as export restrictions can take effect overnight while replacement capacity takes decades to build.
• REEx calls for six industrial-policy priorities including shared pilot centers, oxide-to-metal gap funding, long-term offtake agreements, workforce development, and a national production scorecard.
• Allied coordination with Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Europe is essential, as no single country can afford to build a fully independent rare earth industrial system alone.