The West's Rare-Earth Clock Is Running Out: REEx Model Forecasts Durable 20% Supply-Chain Resilience Around 2033-2035

Highlights

• China controlled ~60% of mined magnet rare earths, 90% of refining, and 90%+ of sintered magnets in 2025, while non-China demand is set to rise 50% by 2035.
• The REEx Resilience Model scores six supply chain links using a weighted harmonic mean, heavily penalizing the weakest link—meaning announced factories rarely equal real resilience.
• GM's termination of its VAC magnet agreement warns that commercial failures can destroy resilience even after plants are built, with ~90% of VAC output tied to a single customer.
• Under the likely scenario, REEx projects only 20–24% resilience by 2035 and pushes the 50% milestone to 2042–2045 or later.
• Achieving the aggressive path requires government offtakes, price floors, heavy rare earth feedstock pooling, and qualification programs before new plants' balance sheets break.