The REEx DFARS Valuation Pipeline: Pricing the Gap Between a Rare Earth Resource and Qualified Supply

Highlights

• DFARS 225.7018-2 restrictions on NdFeB magnets expand across the full supply chain starting January 1, 2027, reshaping rare-earth investment criteria.
• REEx scores companies 0–100 across seven pipeline stages—from resource discovery to auditable commercial production—using evidence over narrative.
• MP Materials and Lynas rank highest at stages 6–7, while Meteoric Resources and Brazilian Rare Earths remain early-stage geological optionality plays.
• Probability-Adjusted Qualified DFARS Tonnes (PAQDT) and a DFARS Capacity Multiple give investors a quantitative way to compare companies across pipeline stages.
• A single prohibited covered-country step can disqualify an entire defense pathway, making provenance and chain interoperability critical valuation factors.